mastodon 4.7.3Senior Fellow @ecfr
. #Drone politics PhD @UniofOxford
. previously @sciencespo
. #Germany #Defence #MilitaryStuff #AI Diskutiert bei @SicherheitsPod
Super interesting discussion (and paper) based on a huge dataset showing that peacetime rearmament is almost never financed by cuts in social spending
Looks like Ukraine actually has the cards.
“The agreement is expected to create a formal pathway for Ukrainian land, air, and maritime drones to be exported to the United States for military testing and evaluation, potentially informing future Pentagon procurement requirements.”
https://www.rferl.org/a/us-ukraine-drone-cooperation-agreement/33809808.html
Ukraine just sent a ground drone, loaded onto a naval drone to Russia. The operation was filmed by an aerial drone.
Future war today.
https://www.businessinsider.com/ukraine-launched-robotic-amphibious-assault-mission-2026-7
Ukraine has used a naval drone to transport a ground drone to attack Russia.
https://www.businessinsider.com/ukraine-launched-robotic-amphibious-assault-mission-2026-7
I published, alongside a dozen think-tankers and experts this article (in French and German) about the future of the FCAS (SCAF) project.
Big thanks to Élie Tenenbaum for bringing the group together.
“Six Ukrainian companies have received permission to export about 100 drones each, the source said, speaking on condition of anonymity.”
So not yet mass, but Ukrainian companies can compete in the Drone Dominance competition
Had the pleasure to add two recommendations to this summer’s War on the Rocks reading list.
https://warontherocks.com/the-2026-war-on-the-rocks-summer-fiction-reading-list/
Really like the toilet signs at the European Space Agency 👩🚀
My kinda story 😂
French pensioner shoots down drone with his rifle (drone was flown by the city, but how was he supposed to know 🤭)
What a quote: “at the beginning of the war, everybody was trained in tactical medicine. Now we realise we should have been trained in drones, because when you know drones, you need so much less tactical medicine.”
Fantastic episode (in English!)
https://podcasts.apple.com/fr/podcast/le-collimateur/id1449461859?l=en-GB&i=1000760609686
This is more relevant than any Vance speeches or National Security Strategies. This is Europe home alone.
https://www.spiegel.de/politik/deutschland/nato-usa-wollen-militaerische-beitraege-fuer-europas-sicherheit-kuerzen-a-98cdf71e-c6c6-4c1d-bee7-180d4a6592a3?sara_ref=re-so-app-sh
Interview with me in Finanz und Wirtschaft
Great article with lots of interesting stats on US power
America is mighty—but becoming less dominant
https://economist.com/interactive/united-states/2026/07/01/america-is-mighty-but-becoming-less-dominant
from The Economist
Can we stop focusing on single statements and pretend they influence US policy? Trump wants to reduce US support for European defence. Merz’s statements (or any other) are a pretext, not the cause.
https://giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/actions/redeem/6528abbe-2414-48ee-ba96-a72b48931ae0 How Germany’s Merz torpedoed his plan to contain Trump
Talked to the Swiss Radio about recent drone sightings in Switzerland and beyond.
Listen here https://www.srf.ch/audio/rendez-vous/drohnenfluege-ueber-kritischer-infrastruktur?partId=lToNfu5-twYmtAFHWp_pOI8vcy4
Yet another delay of US kit sold to allies because of the Iran war. This time it impacts Japanese deterrence against China.
https://www.ft.com/content/406bc3bb-068b-4f4c-b064-23082e8a9f70?shareType=nongift US warns Japan of severe delays in Tomahawk deliveries due to Iran war
Got to speak to Die ZEIT about drones
https://www.zeit.de/politik/ausland/2026-07/drohnen-ukraine-revolution-ulrike-franke/komplettansicht
Fascinating
This is non-representative, so let’s not read too much into this but still fascinating that a huge majority of SPIEGEL readers thinks that the US doing less for European defence is actually an opportunity not a risk.
Main argument I read is about Europeans finally doing their own thing.
A new paper is making the rounds in Germany on Achieving European Defence Autonomy.
It estimates that within 3-5 years and €150-200 billion by 2030 (and a total of around €500 billion over the next decade) Europe can become independent from the US. Highly recommended.
I would just like to remind everyone that in February, *multiple people* in Munich told me that NATO was stronger than ever. 🫠
https://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/nato-munich-looking-glass/
Austria changes its military conscription law and prolongs its military service by three months.
#neutrality
https://orf.at/stories/3437435/
Could be huge, could be nothing, who knows.
ZEIT Politikteil podcast with me
https://www.zeit.de/politik/2026-05/nato-usa-europa-sicherheit-politikpodcast
I’m super excited that we are coming to Mainz!
#SicherheitshalberLive on 17 April!
Tickets are now available on our website.
Got to talk about Friedrich Merz’s first year in office, Zeitenwende and 5000 fewer US troops in Germany on RFI this morning.
“The United States has informed Switzerland that deliveries of its Patriot missile system will be further delayed and become more expensive due to the Iran war, the Swiss government said”
Interesting and somewhat underreported consequence of the drone war in Ukraine: massive delays to patient evacuation and care. The “golden hour” is now days.
Will be at ENS tonight with NATO Admiral Vandier and Stéphane Audoin-Rouzeau to talk about European defence (in French)
https://legrandcontinent.eu/fr/evenements/amiral-vandier-transformation-guerre/
Had the pleasure of being on France Culture with Céline Marangé on Russia, hybrid warfare and our reaction to it. (In French)
“Where we cannot match Russia in terms of manpower, we come up with technical solutions. A drone cannot replace an infantryman, but it can save an infantryman’s life. And it can kill more Russian infantrymen.”
Dmytro Kuleba on Rachman Review
https://www.ft.com/content/96758056-1b4e-49b0-bdff-44b04646317c?syn-25a6b1a6=1
FT editorial board welcomes the “return of German military might “, but also warns that “Germany still lacks a strategic culture. It will take more than a strategy document to acquire it.”
https://giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/actions/redeem/25357b36-a8f6-41e9-94b3-3a4cc2dd2282 The welcome return of German military might
Good interview (in German) with a German Oberst on the logistics of moving hundreds of thousands NATO troops through Germany during a crisis.
Oha, Latvian defence minister resigns over military’s failure to intercept drones flying into Latvian airspace and hitting an oil storage facility*
*not an attack, looks like Ukrainian drones flying off course because of electronic warfare
Interesting that these discussions are also happening in the US:
“The “wide-ranging” talks covered how auto manufacturers could help to produce components or parts for a range of weapons systems”
https://giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/actions/redeem/b707621e-d17a-45b8-a47d-e7bbfb063213
“During these early years, drones and missiles were closely linked and developed together. It was only with the surveillance drones of the 1960s that the branches divided, with drones being defined as reusable aerial vehicles, as opposed to the single-use missiles. Today’s loitering munitions are thus a partial reversal of that history, as they are increasingly seen as single-use systems rather than reusable ones.”
https://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/drone-warfare-past-present-future/
In case you missed it: my latest
(Very uplifting, I know)
https://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/us-europe-trump-nato-force-model/
The state of things in Germany after one year of chancellor Merz seen from France
I wrote about the announced changes in the US’s contribution to NATO and how we have now really arrived in a post-American European security reality.
https://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/us-europe-trump-nato-force-model/
My latest column for WPR on the US announcement from last week that the US is withdrawing substantial assets from NATO’s Force Model.
https://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/us-europe-trump-nato-force-model/
My latest on why JFK and Marilyn Monroe might not have had their careers without drones, and more.
https://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/drone-warfare-past-present-future/
@blub@norden.social Französisches Land. Alles Jäger.
